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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Tuesday, April 10, 2018
4:00pm to 5:00pm
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Baxter B125
Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Updating
Martin Cripps, Professor of Economics, University College London,

Abstract: I provide a characterisation of belief updating processes that are independent of the how the agent chooses to divide up/process the statistical information that they are using in their updating. These updating processes are in general not Bayesian, but can be interpreted as a re-parameterisation of Bayesian updating. This class of updating rules incorporates over- and under-confidence in the updating and other biases. We also provide sufficient conditions for the  updating process to be Bayesian.

For more information, please contact Sheryl Cobb by phone at 626-395-4220 or by email at [email protected].