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Center for Social Information Sciences (CSIS) Seminar

Friday, April 5, 2024
12:00pm to 1:00pm
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Baxter 127
Growth and Likelihood
Jakub Steiner, Senior Researcher, Cerge-Ei in Prague; Associate Professor (tenured), University of Zurich,

Abstract: We examine a stochastic growth process that can alternatively be interpreted as a model of economic growth, financial portfolio management, statistical inference, or biological population growth. For the economic interpretation, we find that the growth-maximizing policy satisfies a meritocracy principle: it minimizes the discrepancy between the resource shares allocated to the agents and the agents' "merits." For the statistical interpretation, the setting is equivalent to a model of predictive coding, in which a misspecified system maximizes the fit of data. A consistency principle analogous to the meritocracy principle requires the optimal fit to minimize a degree of Bayes inconsistency.

Joint work with Larry Samuelson.

For more information, please contact Letty Diaz by phone at 626-395-1255 or by email at [email protected].