Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Abstract: The size of a war, as well as the incentive to start one, depends on expectations about which countries will join. These expectations are in turn shaped by the structure of political alignments and integration. I propose a model of conflict that accounts for these factors and, using data on international disputes from 1816-2014, I use structural estimation techniques to connect theory with data. I then estimate the effect of integration on the incentives for conflict. My results suggest that integration makes wars smaller but more likely—integration pacifies potential joiners, reducing the scale of war but consequently triggering more attacks due to an expectation for less opposition. Moreover, I identify a strong correlation between power inequality and the expected size of war in equilibrium, driven largely by bandwagoning from the stronger side. Finally, the model facilitates counterfactual experiments, which I demonstrate by considering potential disputes between China and Taiwan after the Cold War.