Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar
Abstract: Decisions under uncertainty are often made with information that is (ambiguous or) difficult to interpret because multiple interpretations are possible. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, policy-makers based their decisions on the fatality rate among tested and confirmed individuals, which is only an ambiguous signal of the overall fatality rate among the infected in the population - a key unknown. Individuals may perceive and handle uncertainty about interpretation differently and in ways that are not directly observable to a modeler. This paper identifies and experimentally examines behavior that can be interpreted as reflecting an individual's attitude towards such uncertainty.
Written with Larry Epstein. Professor Halevy will joined by guests Peter Wakker and Aurelien Baillon.